École d'été 2026

30 août - 2 septembre 2026

Eva Cantoni

Prof. Eva Cantoni, Université de Genève 

Mme Caroline Gillardin, coordinatrice CUSO

Co organisation avec l'EPFL

Prof. Rianne de Heide, University of Twente, The Netherlands

Prof. Bodhisattva Sen, University of Columbia, USA

Prof. Thordis Thorarinsdottir, University of Oslo, Norway

Prof. Rianne de Heide, University of Twente, The Netherlands

Title : E-values and Multiple Testing

Abstract : E-values offer a flexible notion of statistical evidence that remains valid under optional stopping, continuous monitoring, and data-dependent analysis. This lecture series introduces e-values and e-processes, with examples from early-phase clinical trials where evidence can be monitored during recruitment to support early efficacy or futility decisions while preserving Type-I error control.

We then turn to multiple testing. Starting from the basis with the different classical statistical measures of error, dependency structures, and corresponding popular procedures, we discuss a very recent general closure principle showing that all multiple-testing procedures can be represented through closed testing with e-values. This perspective yields uniform improvements of existing procedures and supports strong post hoc flexibility: researchers may explore multiple rejected sets, add hypotheses or data over time, and in some settings choose the target error criterion and significance level after seeing the data, while retaining rigorous error guarantees. 

The emphasis will be on intuition, practical implications, and future research opportunities arising from the unprecedented flexibility offered by e-values.

Prof. Bodhisattva Sen, University of Columbia, USA

Title: A Gentle Introduction to Empirical Process Theory and Applications

Abstract: This mini-course will give an accessible introduction to empirical process methods, with an emphasis on statistical applications. I will review empirical processes, uniform laws of large numbers and central limit theorems, and explain how they can be used to derive limiting distributions for estimators, especially through localized M-estimation and argmax/continuous mapping arguments. I will discuss chaining and entropy methods, including covering and bracketing numbers, Dudley-type maximal inequalities, symmetrization, and applications to Donsker/Glivenko-Cantelli classes and rates of convergence. I will also present an application to optimal transport: estimating transport maps by plug-in estimators. 

The course is intended for PhD students in statistics with a standard background in probability. I will aim to keep the treatment accessible and application-oriented, rather than focusing on the most abstract technical details.

Prof. Thordis Thorarinsdottir, University of Oslo, Norway

Title: Proper Scoring Rules in Probabilistic Forecasting: Theory, Methods and Applications 

Abstract: Forecast evaluation methods are essential both for diagnosing prediction models and for assessing their effectiveness. These lectures will introduce the foundations of forecast verification for probabilistic predictions of continuous variables, in one or more dimensions, with a particular focus on proper scoring rules and related evaluation metrics. A central principle is that probabilistic forecasts should be as sharp as possible subject to calibration: calibration refers to the statistical consistency between the predictive distribution and the observation, while sharpness captures the concentration of forecast uncertainty and thus its information content. We will discuss empirical approaches to assessing calibration, and then develop the theory and practice of scoring rules as quantitative tools for evaluating forecast accuracy. Special attention will be given to evaluating extreme events and to situations where predictive distributions are compared to empirical distributions of observed data rather than single realised values.

A scoring rule assigns a numerical score to a forecast by comparing the predictive distribution with the realised outcome, and is called proper if the expected score is optimised when the true data-generating distribution is issued as the forecast. Propriety is widely regarded as a necessary condition for decision-theoretically sound forecast evaluation. The class of proper scoring rules is rich and diverse, allowing different aspects of forecast quality-such as calibration, sharpness, or specific regions of the outcome space-to be emphasised to varying degrees. This raises the question of integration of evaluation and estimation: if a particular proper scoring rule captures the properties we desire in a forecast, it is natural to use the same rule as a loss function in model training? We will outline how this perspective informs recent developments in machine learning, especially in domains such as meteorology, where probabilistic forecasting and proper scoring rules have a long tradition. 

Welcome tea Sunday : Hôtel Eden

Apero Sunday : Bar Hôtel Eden

Breakfast, lunch and dinner : Hôtel Eden

This program may be changed :

Eden Resort à Anzère

Hôtel : Eden Resort Anzère

Adress : Route d'Anzère 34, 1972 Anzère, Canton du Valais

Tel +41 (0)27 399 31 00 L'hôtel est situé dans les Alpes valaisannes. Il y a des chambres et des suites.

Accès à Anzère en voiture: Google Map

EN AVION Aéroports internationaux de: - Genève (180 km) - Zürich (290 km) - Bâle (270 km)

En transport public Horaires Swiss Train :

De: Aéroport de Genève : Train jusqu'à Sion. A la gare de Sion : car postal Sion - Anzère centre (36 mns)

Swiss Train schedule : From: Geneva airport, To: Sion. From Sion station : postal bus to Anzère centre. Travel time: Genève - Sion (1 hour and 55 minutes); Sion - Anzère (36 minutes).

Visa pour la Suisse (demande de visa suisse en ligne)

Météo en suisse (meteoswiss.admin.ch)

Tarif :

CUSO (UNINE, UNIGE, UNIL, UNIFR, UNIBE, IHEID, HES-SO)

Doctorant-e CUSO appartement en chambre double avec salle de bains partagée: 200 CHF

Doctorant-e CUSO appartement en chambre simple avec salle de bains partagée: 325 CHF

Doctorant-e CUSO studio privé avec salle de bains privée: 350 CHF

Post-doctorant-e CUSO appartement en chambre double avec salle de bains partagée: 300 CHF

Post-doctorant-e CUSO appartement en chambre simple avec salle de bains partagée: 375 CHF

Post-doctorant-e CUSO studio privé avec salle de bains privée: 450 CHF

Professeur-e CUSO appartement en chambre double avec salle de bains partagée : 400 CHF

Professeur-e CUSO appartement en chambre simple avec salle de bains partagée : 475 CHF

Professeur-e CUSO studio privé avec salle de bains privée: 550 CHF

Non CUSO appartement en chambre double avec salle de bains partagée: 1000 CHF

Non CUSO appartement en chambre simple avec salle de bains partagée: 1100 CHF

Non CUSO studio privé avec salle de bains privée: 1200 CHF

Lors de votre inscription, merci de bien vouloir indiquer dans la zone commentaire si vous désirez un studio, une chambre simple, ou double et le nom de la personne avec qui vous souhaiteriez partager votre chambre. Dans le cas où rien n'est indiqué, un studio privé sera réservé. Si vous vous inscrivez et que vous ne pouvez pas participer, veuillez nous contacter dès que possible. Dans le cas contraire, toutes les nuits d'hôtel pourraient vous être facturées.

*Condition d'annulation :

Pour une annulation effectuée entre la date de réservation et 30 jours avant l'arrivée aucun frais d'annulation ne sera prélevé.Pour une annulation effectuée entre 7 et 30 jours avant l'arrivée un montant équivalent à 30 % de la réservation sera prélevé.Pour une annulation effectuée entre 7 jours avant l'arrivée et le jour de l'arrivée la totalité de la réservation sera prélevée. Pour une annulation effectuée entre le jour de l'arrivée et le no show la totalité de la réservation sera prélevé. Pour cause d'accident ou maladie, etc, merci de nous livrer un certificat médical.

*Cancellation policy:

For cancellations made between the reservation date and 30 days before arrival, no cancellation fee will be charged.

For cancellations made between 7 and 30 days before arrival, an amount equivalent to 30% of the reservation will be charged.

For cancellations made between 7 days and the day of arrival, the full amount of the reservation will be charged.

For cancellations made between the day of arrival and no-show, the full amount of the reservation will be charged.

In the event of accident or illness, etc, please provide a medical certificate.

Versement sur compte postal (payment into postal account) :

CUSO

CCP 12-1873-8

Neuchâtel

BIC: POFICHBEXXX

IBAN: CH0509000000120018738. Merci d'écrire votre nom suivi du no "26220001" lors du paiement. Thank you to write your name on the payment wording and nb "26220001".

24